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[Dave]

Jets, Bills, Lions and Falcons all go down in flames.

Only got to watch the Jet game and highlights of the others. Jets really disappointed me. Patriots were pulling people off the street to stick in their secondary and Sanchez couldn't take advantage. When they went up 9-6 after the safety and TD, I thought they had a shot, but they let the Pats move 80 yards in the last minute of the half (which felt like a half hour) and that was pretty much the turning point. They couldn't pressure Brady after the safety. The secondary played terribly. Just bad stuff on both sides of the ball.

Houston is in trouble with Matt Schaub out. Leinart's rapid-fire incompletion offense will be unveiled next Sunday.

The Falcon thing: going for 4th and inches on their own 29. I can understand Smith's thought process feeling like Brees is unstoppable, but the whole thing was clumsy. Punting team out, timeout, a deep set formation...bad. And New Orleans blew them back off the line. At least try to hard snap it, then call timeout, then sneak it. I also wouldn't fault the Falcons for punting. The stats guys are going nuts saying that the math says go for it, but I think those guys are abusing probability by making the mistake in thinking it tells you more than it does. Probability helps you make decisions; it doesn't determine them. There are other factors at play, and the fact that the stats guys don't see it and prefer to pray at the altar of math is weird. On the one hand, they mock guys who go with "gut" feelings because it's not scientific, but then they make an unscientific leap in mistaking a statistical tool for god's truth in decision-making. Okay. I'm also not exactly sure that they calculated the probability right in the success rate of 46-yard or shorter field goals for failing on the 4th down play.